CROATIA vs ENGLAND - TACTICAL PREVIEW

  

With France already waiting in the final, Croatia and England meet in what is a historic opportunity for both national teams. In fact, they have been the ones who made the most of the so-called "weaker side" of the draw, winning the games they had to win to reach the final four. For the Balkans it's the second time they do it after the 1998 heroics, whereas for the Englishmen it's the first time since 1990. Either team will consider this an amazing opportunity as they won't be facing any of the big guns, so the dream to be in the final is very close and that can have its influence mentally. 

Croatia reached the semifinals after playing two 120-minute games and two penalty shootouts, suffering, fighting, without playing their best against defensive teams, but showing the mental strength needed, especially after overcoming tough blows in both games. Against Denmark Modric missed a penalty four minutes till the end, and then they suffered a late Russian equalizer when the qualification was close. However, they won both matches on penalties thanks to a spectacular Subasic and extreme fortitude to remain strong. Nonetheless, by being the team with more minutes on their legs and having just four days to recover, the fitness aspect will be key. Croatia are the more tired team and that will have two tactical consequences: they will have to go for an early goal, and they will have to avoid being down on the scoresheet. It's a long match, so having to comeback will be extra tough for them as this will mean a higher physical output when they don't have enough energies. This must be worrying Dalic who will have to find the right balance to take the most out of his players without draining them completely.

Vrsaljko isn't 100% fit but he will be part of the starting lineup

 Marcelo Brozovic is likely to start after not taking part of the match against Russia. This was because Dalic chose to play with Modric and Rakitic as defensive midfielders with the goal of improving the ball circulation in the middle and attack with four men against a closed defensive wall. However, this duo doesn't offer the defensive solidity needed and suffered against the quick Russian attacks. Taking into account that England presses higher up the pitch and has several attacking players, the presence of a ball-winning man is important. This would bring Kramaric back to the bench and force Modric higher up the pitch so he can exploit the space between the English three-man defensive line and the midfielders. From that position, the Croatian number 10 can feed the rockets he has on his wings, Perisic and Rebic who have been two of the outstanding wingers in this tournament and who can cause a lot of problems behind the backs of the English wingbacks. If they can feed Mandzukic, a willy and smart player, he can disrupt the Three Lions' defense with his strength, especially if he targets Walker who has been the weakest in the air. If the Juventus's man can generate superiority on that sector, he will be able to put himself into scoring positions despite being significantly tired by the end of the quarterfinal match. 

Mandzukic will try to hurt an English defense that hasn't been tested properly yet

To counter Modric's presence between the lines, Southgate has the option of placing Eric Dier next to Henderson in the middle, sacrificing one of the attacking midfielders and modifying the tactical approach to the game. From what has been seen of the English manager, though, it's unlikely he will make that substitution, so Liverpool's captain will have to be extremely aware of the Real Madrid's star's movements at all times. Besides, with superiority in numbers in defense thanks to the three-man line, England will be able to press the Croatian defensive midfielders, who will have to deal with the mobility of Alli and Lingard, plus Sterling's pace who can be deadly  if he can take the center backs one-on-one. If the wingbacks can attack with confidence, there will be more men in attack as well so England will be able to hold the ball, be higher up the pitch, press high, limit the opponent's game and generate dead-ball situations that have been so good for them this tournament. Eight of their goals have been from set pieces, whereas three of the four Croatia has conceded so far have also been from those situations. There's a clear English edge in that area that has been so important in this World Cup. 

Southgate is unlikely to change his preferred starting eleven

However, even if England has been a very balanced team, this has also meant they have been one-dimensional, without enough creativity to generate clear cut chances, as they tend to struggle to feed Kane with clean balls in open play. If the set-pieces are nullified, Southgate's team can struggle to break Croatia down and be exposed against a team with enough football to trouble anyone. If the Three Lions can't find the cracks and start to leave space behind, the talented Croatian midfielders can wreak havoc against a team that hasn't been properly tested in defense so far. Colombia and Sweden chose to defend but when they attacked they exposed weaknesses that a better team can exploit. Pickford has been outstanding so far, but England can't depend on him alone to stop the players Croatia has in attack.

Pickford's hands have been instrumental for England's tournament, but he will need help to stop Croatia

It's a very interesting duel with the plus of being a World Cup semifinal. The excitement levels in England is skyrockets, so Southgate and his players must avoid to get caught on that and be overconfident against a Croatian team who has the players and the attacking weapons to hurt them. The key will be in the fitness levels of the Valteni and how they cope with the English set-pieces. If they manage to control them, they have the options and the creativity up front to get a historic win and reach the final. In any case, England are favorites (2.25 to win and 1.57 to qualify), but there's very little difference between the two teams and only Croatian tiredness tips the scales in the Three Lions' favor. France awaits eagerly. 

Modric con su juego y Kane con sus goles son las figuras de cada selección

FRANCE vs BELGIUM - TACTICAL PREVIEW

 

Somewhat of a surpise semifinal but undoubtedly a match to enjoy between two teams that have some of the best players in the world and who can make something out of nothing for the good of their teams. There's also two managers with opposed views but who present a nice clash of pragmatism against inventive, so it has all the makings for a great match. 

On one side there's Deschamps with his 4-2-3-1 in paper that's really a 4-3-3 in the pitch and that hasn't been tinkered much since Giroud came in for the second half against Australia in the debut, a tactic that has taken them to the semifinals without many problems. After a match against Argentina where France was able to exploit the speed and talent of its players, was forced to play a much different game against Uruguay. There, practicality and patience were key and so France did, as in the round of 16 match, what it had to do to get the win. If against Argentina they had to be electric and opt for a blow-by-blow approach, in quarterfinals they had to slowly but steadily put pressure before breaking the defense and score. The way they handled the match with the 2-0 was extraordinary, they never left cruise speed and dominated to get the win. And that's the thing you need to do in a World Cup.

France's starting eleven

The French fullbacks, even if they can't be labeled as attack-minded, climb the pitch and pose threat, especially Hernandez on the left, knowing that they have in Kanté one of the best players of this tournament. Together with Pogba and Matuidi, France's midfield has been dominant in every match and works perfectly with the fullbacks providing the necessary width to the team. In Griezmann, Les Bleus have a player who has improved with every match and who is running the matches at will, being undetectable for moments thanks to his mobility. His partnership with Giroud is excellent and the Chelsea's striker presence works great to give problems to the opposing centrebacks thanks to his ability to hold the ball that allows him to supply his teammates after doing the dirty work. And in Mbappé there's the game-changer thanks to his pace, quickness and ability, something that makes him one of the key men to watch in this match.

Kanté is a key man and he must be at his best to deal with Hazard and De Bruyne

Meanwhile, Belgium defeated Brazil after repeating the same 11 that turned the tide against Japan, although with several positional changes that helped find the holes in Tite's setup. If against Japan Chadli was a left wingback, against Brazil he played in a more central role in defense to then hide the touchline in attack. If Fellaini was an attacking midfielder against the Samurai Blue, against the Canariha he was the physical presence on the right side of midfield to control the most creative area of the opponent, thus freeing De Bruyne -who had been playing as a central midfielder- to act as a false nine. This movement allowed him to take part in every attack, with Hazard on the left and Lukaku attacking the right to exploit Marcelo's back. The tactical plan was perfect and showed that Martínez has versatile players who allow him to tinker tactically, besides the fact that some players excelled in that match. Hazard's game was historical, Lukaku was indomitable, and De Bruyne invisible to the defenders. 

Probable Belgian stratingl lineup

It will be interesting then, to see how the Spanish manager plans this match against a French team that feels comfortable in any situation. He won't be going back to the initial plan due to the defensive weaknesses shown, especially on the side Mbappé will be lurking. Against Brazil, Vertonghen was a left back in a line of four in defense, but he's not the quickest and could fail in his attempt to control the PSG attacker. Although with Meunier's absence due to suspension, Martinez has a decision to make. Does he place the Spurs player on the left with Vermaelen as centre back? Seems like the most logical thing, as Carrasco suffered too much in defense. Chadli will have to play on the right wingback, with Fellaini supporting on the left and Witsel in charge of tracking Griezmann's movement and Pogba's run from deep. Limiting spaces in defense will be key and making the most of the fast breaks is a must. Lukaku will be playing in a more central role than against Brazil, with De Bruyne and Hazard the ones to get the ball in 3/4s and attack with, either by dribbling the ball forward, or with quick direct passes. Many of France's hopes lie on how Kanté can cope and control the two Belgian magicians. 

Hazard was a best against Brazil and he would crown himself with a similar performance

The main inssue with the Red Devils is on how their attack will be when in possession, taking into account that France is excellent when tracking back and closing up spaces, and that Belgium has been thickish in that aspect. This can be exploited by Deschamps who won't have an issue in ceding the initiative and attacking quickly to match the speed of his forwards with the slowliness of the Belgian defenders. With both teams being more comfortable attacking with space than with possession, it's likely to see either ceding the ball for moments, rallying back and then sprinting quickly, a thing they do excellently. So the defense-attack transitions will be key in the match, as well as how the teams manage when tracking back.  

It's clear that they are two similar teams of superb level, with the morale skyrocketing and with a massive dream ahead. It's at this stage that details are the ones that define the result. Which goalkeeper will be more important? Which team will make the most of dead ball situations? Which will handle the pressure or respond to a disvantageous situation? The similarities are impressive: there's youth, there's lack of experience at this stage, both have outstanding physical players, and two top class goalies, so it's hard to answer any of those questions. 

Mbappé and Lukaku will have to impose their games to benefit their teams

The bookmakers are labeling France as the slight favorites to reach the final, @1.8 against @2.0, showing that there parity between the teams. As both attack better than they defend, especially with space ahead, the odds for both teams to score are @1.75, which seems like a good bet, as the Over 2.5 goals @2.0 taking into account the team's strengths in attack and a likely exchange of blows in the match. However, if the game remais even the nerves will start to play their game, fear will strike and they would be more careful to avoid defeat. Whatever happens, it has the makings of an amazing match.