CROATIA vs ENGLAND - TACTICAL PREVIEW

  

With France already waiting in the final, Croatia and England meet in what is a historic opportunity for both national teams. In fact, they have been the ones who made the most of the so-called "weaker side" of the draw, winning the games they had to win to reach the final four. For the Balkans it's the second time they do it after the 1998 heroics, whereas for the Englishmen it's the first time since 1990. Either team will consider this an amazing opportunity as they won't be facing any of the big guns, so the dream to be in the final is very close and that can have its influence mentally. 

Croatia reached the semifinals after playing two 120-minute games and two penalty shootouts, suffering, fighting, without playing their best against defensive teams, but showing the mental strength needed, especially after overcoming tough blows in both games. Against Denmark Modric missed a penalty four minutes till the end, and then they suffered a late Russian equalizer when the qualification was close. However, they won both matches on penalties thanks to a spectacular Subasic and extreme fortitude to remain strong. Nonetheless, by being the team with more minutes on their legs and having just four days to recover, the fitness aspect will be key. Croatia are the more tired team and that will have two tactical consequences: they will have to go for an early goal, and they will have to avoid being down on the scoresheet. It's a long match, so having to comeback will be extra tough for them as this will mean a higher physical output when they don't have enough energies. This must be worrying Dalic who will have to find the right balance to take the most out of his players without draining them completely.

Vrsaljko isn't 100% fit but he will be part of the starting lineup

 Marcelo Brozovic is likely to start after not taking part of the match against Russia. This was because Dalic chose to play with Modric and Rakitic as defensive midfielders with the goal of improving the ball circulation in the middle and attack with four men against a closed defensive wall. However, this duo doesn't offer the defensive solidity needed and suffered against the quick Russian attacks. Taking into account that England presses higher up the pitch and has several attacking players, the presence of a ball-winning man is important. This would bring Kramaric back to the bench and force Modric higher up the pitch so he can exploit the space between the English three-man defensive line and the midfielders. From that position, the Croatian number 10 can feed the rockets he has on his wings, Perisic and Rebic who have been two of the outstanding wingers in this tournament and who can cause a lot of problems behind the backs of the English wingbacks. If they can feed Mandzukic, a willy and smart player, he can disrupt the Three Lions' defense with his strength, especially if he targets Walker who has been the weakest in the air. If the Juventus's man can generate superiority on that sector, he will be able to put himself into scoring positions despite being significantly tired by the end of the quarterfinal match. 

Mandzukic will try to hurt an English defense that hasn't been tested properly yet

To counter Modric's presence between the lines, Southgate has the option of placing Eric Dier next to Henderson in the middle, sacrificing one of the attacking midfielders and modifying the tactical approach to the game. From what has been seen of the English manager, though, it's unlikely he will make that substitution, so Liverpool's captain will have to be extremely aware of the Real Madrid's star's movements at all times. Besides, with superiority in numbers in defense thanks to the three-man line, England will be able to press the Croatian defensive midfielders, who will have to deal with the mobility of Alli and Lingard, plus Sterling's pace who can be deadly  if he can take the center backs one-on-one. If the wingbacks can attack with confidence, there will be more men in attack as well so England will be able to hold the ball, be higher up the pitch, press high, limit the opponent's game and generate dead-ball situations that have been so good for them this tournament. Eight of their goals have been from set pieces, whereas three of the four Croatia has conceded so far have also been from those situations. There's a clear English edge in that area that has been so important in this World Cup. 

Southgate is unlikely to change his preferred starting eleven

However, even if England has been a very balanced team, this has also meant they have been one-dimensional, without enough creativity to generate clear cut chances, as they tend to struggle to feed Kane with clean balls in open play. If the set-pieces are nullified, Southgate's team can struggle to break Croatia down and be exposed against a team with enough football to trouble anyone. If the Three Lions can't find the cracks and start to leave space behind, the talented Croatian midfielders can wreak havoc against a team that hasn't been properly tested in defense so far. Colombia and Sweden chose to defend but when they attacked they exposed weaknesses that a better team can exploit. Pickford has been outstanding so far, but England can't depend on him alone to stop the players Croatia has in attack.

Pickford's hands have been instrumental for England's tournament, but he will need help to stop Croatia

It's a very interesting duel with the plus of being a World Cup semifinal. The excitement levels in England is skyrockets, so Southgate and his players must avoid to get caught on that and be overconfident against a Croatian team who has the players and the attacking weapons to hurt them. The key will be in the fitness levels of the Valteni and how they cope with the English set-pieces. If they manage to control them, they have the options and the creativity up front to get a historic win and reach the final. In any case, England are favorites (2.25 to win and 1.57 to qualify), but there's very little difference between the two teams and only Croatian tiredness tips the scales in the Three Lions' favor. France awaits eagerly. 

Modric con su juego y Kane con sus goles son las figuras de cada selección