Somewhat of a surpise semifinal but undoubtedly a match to enjoy between two teams that have some of the best players in the world and who can make something out of nothing for the good of their teams. There's also two managers with opposed views but who present a nice clash of pragmatism against inventive, so it has all the makings for a great match.
On one side there's Deschamps with his 4-2-3-1 in paper that's really a 4-3-3 in the pitch and that hasn't been tinkered much since Giroud came in for the second half against Australia in the debut, a tactic that has taken them to the semifinals without many problems. After a match against Argentina where France was able to exploit the speed and talent of its players, was forced to play a much different game against Uruguay. There, practicality and patience were key and so France did, as in the round of 16 match, what it had to do to get the win. If against Argentina they had to be electric and opt for a blow-by-blow approach, in quarterfinals they had to slowly but steadily put pressure before breaking the defense and score. The way they handled the match with the 2-0 was extraordinary, they never left cruise speed and dominated to get the win. And that's the thing you need to do in a World Cup.
On one side there's Deschamps with his 4-2-3-1 in paper that's really a 4-3-3 in the pitch and that hasn't been tinkered much since Giroud came in for the second half against Australia in the debut, a tactic that has taken them to the semifinals without many problems. After a match against Argentina where France was able to exploit the speed and talent of its players, was forced to play a much different game against Uruguay. There, practicality and patience were key and so France did, as in the round of 16 match, what it had to do to get the win. If against Argentina they had to be electric and opt for a blow-by-blow approach, in quarterfinals they had to slowly but steadily put pressure before breaking the defense and score. The way they handled the match with the 2-0 was extraordinary, they never left cruise speed and dominated to get the win. And that's the thing you need to do in a World Cup.
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| France's starting eleven |
The French fullbacks, even if they can't be labeled as attack-minded, climb the pitch and pose threat, especially Hernandez on the left, knowing that they have in Kanté one of the best players of this tournament. Together with Pogba and Matuidi, France's midfield has been dominant in every match and works perfectly with the fullbacks providing the necessary width to the team. In Griezmann, Les Bleus have a player who has improved with every match and who is running the matches at will, being undetectable for moments thanks to his mobility. His partnership with Giroud is excellent and the Chelsea's striker presence works great to give problems to the opposing centrebacks thanks to his ability to hold the ball that allows him to supply his teammates after doing the dirty work. And in Mbappé there's the game-changer thanks to his pace, quickness and ability, something that makes him one of the key men to watch in this match.
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| Kanté is a key man and he must be at his best to deal with Hazard and De Bruyne |
Meanwhile, Belgium defeated Brazil after repeating the same 11 that turned the tide against Japan, although with several positional changes that helped find the holes in Tite's setup. If against Japan Chadli was a left wingback, against Brazil he played in a more central role in defense to then hide the touchline in attack. If Fellaini was an attacking midfielder against the Samurai Blue, against the Canariha he was the physical presence on the right side of midfield to control the most creative area of the opponent, thus freeing De Bruyne -who had been playing as a central midfielder- to act as a false nine. This movement allowed him to take part in every attack, with Hazard on the left and Lukaku attacking the right to exploit Marcelo's back. The tactical plan was perfect and showed that Martínez has versatile players who allow him to tinker tactically, besides the fact that some players excelled in that match. Hazard's game was historical, Lukaku was indomitable, and De Bruyne invisible to the defenders.
It will be interesting then, to see how the Spanish manager plans this match against a French team that feels comfortable in any situation. He won't be going back to the initial plan due to the defensive weaknesses shown, especially on the side Mbappé will be lurking. Against Brazil, Vertonghen was a left back in a line of four in defense, but he's not the quickest and could fail in his attempt to control the PSG attacker. Although with Meunier's absence due to suspension, Martinez has a decision to make. Does he place the Spurs player on the left with Vermaelen as centre back? Seems like the most logical thing, as Carrasco suffered too much in defense. Chadli will have to play on the right wingback, with Fellaini supporting on the left and Witsel in charge of tracking Griezmann's movement and Pogba's run from deep. Limiting spaces in defense will be key and making the most of the fast breaks is a must. Lukaku will be playing in a more central role than against Brazil, with De Bruyne and Hazard the ones to get the ball in 3/4s and attack with, either by dribbling the ball forward, or with quick direct passes. Many of France's hopes lie on how Kanté can cope and control the two Belgian magicians.
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| Probable Belgian stratingl lineup |
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| Hazard was a best against Brazil and he would crown himself with a similar performance |
The main inssue with the Red Devils is on how their attack will be when in possession, taking into account that France is excellent when tracking back and closing up spaces, and that Belgium has been thickish in that aspect. This can be exploited by Deschamps who won't have an issue in ceding the initiative and attacking quickly to match the speed of his forwards with the slowliness of the Belgian defenders. With both teams being more comfortable attacking with space than with possession, it's likely to see either ceding the ball for moments, rallying back and then sprinting quickly, a thing they do excellently. So the defense-attack transitions will be key in the match, as well as how the teams manage when tracking back.
It's clear that they are two similar teams of superb level, with the morale skyrocketing and with a massive dream ahead. It's at this stage that details are the ones that define the result. Which goalkeeper will be more important? Which team will make the most of dead ball situations? Which will handle the pressure or respond to a disvantageous situation? The similarities are impressive: there's youth, there's lack of experience at this stage, both have outstanding physical players, and two top class goalies, so it's hard to answer any of those questions.
It's clear that they are two similar teams of superb level, with the morale skyrocketing and with a massive dream ahead. It's at this stage that details are the ones that define the result. Which goalkeeper will be more important? Which team will make the most of dead ball situations? Which will handle the pressure or respond to a disvantageous situation? The similarities are impressive: there's youth, there's lack of experience at this stage, both have outstanding physical players, and two top class goalies, so it's hard to answer any of those questions.
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| Mbappé and Lukaku will have to impose their games to benefit their teams |
The bookmakers are labeling France as the slight favorites to reach the final, @1.8 against @2.0, showing that there parity between the teams. As both attack better than they defend, especially with space ahead, the odds for both teams to score are @1.75, which seems like a good bet, as the Over 2.5 goals @2.0 taking into account the team's strengths in attack and a likely exchange of blows in the match. However, if the game remais even the nerves will start to play their game, fear will strike and they would be more careful to avoid defeat. Whatever happens, it has the makings of an amazing match.
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